Forecast models Tropical cyclone track forecasting

significant errors in track still occur on occasion, seen in 1 of ernesto s (2006) forecasts. national hurricane center s official forecast in light blue.

high-speed computers , sophisticated simulation software allow meteorologists run computer models forecast tropical cyclone tracks based on future position , strength of high- , low-pressure systems. combining forecast models increased understanding of forces act on tropical cyclones, , wealth of data earth-orbiting satellites , other sensors, scientists have increased accuracy of track forecasts on recent decades. addition of dropwindsonde missions around tropical cyclones in known synoptic flow missions in atlantic basin decreased track error 15–20 percent. using consensus of forecast models, ensemble members of various models, can reduce forecast error. however, regardless how small average error becomes, large errors within guidance still possible. accurate track forecast important, because if track forecast incorrect, forecasts intensity, rainfall, storm surge, , tornado threat incorrect.